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Serial interval distribution



Serial interval

Vaccination effect parameters



Efficacy first dose preventing transmission

Delay until protection after first dose

Efficacy first and second dose preventing transmission

Delay until protection after second dose

Efficacy first, second, and booster dose preventing transmission

Delay until protection after booster dose

Relative hospitalisation risk by any immunity (vaccination and/or infection)

Within hospital (care-path) parameters



Length of stay, general ward

Proportion GW admitted to ICU

Length of stay, ICU

Proportion ICU admitted to SD

Length of stay, step-down unit


Exponential smoothing (ETS) model



ETS model parameters



Serial interval distribution
Resulting ward stay


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